Arb or Near-Arb Middle - Middles - PuntPilot

How Middles Work

An introduction to Middles

Reading the Table

How to read Middles candidates, metrics, bet legs, and actions

Using Filters

How to filter Middles candidates

Bankroll and Staking

How Middles uses bankroll, Kelly, and leg stakes

Saving a Play

How to save Middles plays to Scratchpad

Standard +EV Middle

Use Middles for a normal positive-EV middle

High-Upside Middle

Use Middles for a large Hit return

Low-Cost Account Activity

Use Middles for normal-looking betting activity

Key Bookmaker Middle

Use Middles when one bookmaker must be involved

Arb or Near-Arb Middle

Use Middles for arbs and low-miss-cost setups

Scenario

Say you want the safest return profile Middles can find.

You are looking for an arb, or something close to it, where the non-middle outcomes are covered or nearly covered.

Set up the filters

Open filters with Filters and use:

Show arbs

Keep this enabled so pure arbs can appear.

Sort By

SR

Use SR sorting when the miss outcome matters more than the highest EV number.

Min SR

Set this near zero if you only want no-loss or near-no-loss shapes.

Min Count

Keep fair-line support high enough that near-arbs are not based on weak prices.

Use time filters if you only want opportunities you can place immediately.

Pick a candidate

For an arb, the Edge column marks EV as ARB.

For a near-arb, focus on SR first. Then check Hit return as extra upside, not the main reason for placing.

Before acting, confirm:

both prices are still live
neither leg has moved after you opened the candidate
both bookmakers are usable
stake sizes are realistic
the market and lines really create the covered shape

Place, save, and track

Once both prices are available:

Place both bookmaker bets quickly and cleanly.
Save the play with if the displayed candidate still matches what you placed.
Enter both actual stakes.
Add it from Scratchpad to Tracker.

Common mistakes

Assuming an arb is still available after one leg moves.
Treating a near-arb like a pure arb.
Ignoring stake limits at one bookmaker.
Forgetting that rounding can turn a near-zero miss cost into a real cost.
Saving the candidate after the displayed odds no longer match.