Lessons

  • How Positive EV Works

    An introduction to Positive EV

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Positive EV candidates, odds, fair odds, and Kelly

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Positive EV candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Positive EV uses bankroll and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Positive EV plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Standard Value Bet

    Use Positive EV for a straightforward value bet

  • Implied Fair Odds

    Include Implied alongside Derived candidates

  • Kelly and Bankroll

    Use Positive EV staking controls

  • Bookmaker-Specific Value

    Use Positive EV for one bookmaker or account

  • Small-Edge Mug Bet

    Use Positive EV for normal account activity

Small-Edge Mug Bet

Use Positive EV for normal account activity

Scenario

Say you want normal-looking account activity, but you do not want to throw away value.

Positive EV can help you find ordinary bets that are at least slightly profitable by the fair line.

Set up the filters

Open filters with Filters and use a practical setup:

Bookmakers

Select the account where you want activity.

Markets

Choose markets that look normal for that account.

Expected Value

Use a lower minimum EV if the goal is account activity rather than maximum edge.

Winning Probability

Use this if you want to avoid very long prices.

Pick a candidate

Start with whether the bet looks normal, then check EV and Kelly.

A small positive edge can be enough for account activity. The point is not to force the highest EV candidate; it is to avoid placing random negative-value bets when a reasonable positive-value option exists.

Place, save, and track

Once the bet fits the account and the price is live:

  1. Place the bookmaker bet.
  2. Save the play with if the displayed candidate still matches what you placed.
  3. Enter the stake you placed.
  4. Add it from Scratchpad to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Chasing the top EV candidate when it looks unnatural for the account.
  • Taking a tiny edge with a stake that is too large.
  • Ignoring the market and league context.
  • Saving stale odds after the price has moved.
  • Forgetting to track the bet afterwards.