Lessons

  • How Positive EV Works

    An introduction to Positive EV

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Positive EV candidates, odds, fair odds, and Kelly

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Positive EV candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Positive EV uses bankroll and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Positive EV plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Standard Value Bet

    Use Positive EV for a straightforward value bet

  • Implied Fair Odds

    Include Implied alongside Derived candidates

  • Kelly and Bankroll

    Use Positive EV staking controls

  • Bookmaker-Specific Value

    Use Positive EV for one bookmaker or account

  • Small-Edge Mug Bet

    Use Positive EV for normal account activity

Implied Fair Odds

Include Implied alongside Derived candidates

Scenario

Say you want to include markets where devigged Derived pricing is unavailable or has too little support.

Selecting Derived and Implied can surface more candidates. Implied fallback candidates use weighted market-average odds as the fair line.

Set up the filters

Open filters with Filters and set:

EV Sources
Derived and Implied

Check both source options. This keeps Derived candidates and includes Implied fallback candidates. Each source has its own EV range and minimum count.

Implied EV

Use a stricter minimum for implied candidates if you want a larger margin of safety.

Implied Min Sources

Raise the Implied source count when you want more market support behind the implied price without changing the Derived requirement.

Keep the Exclude exchanges setting in mind. If exchange prices are distorting your source count, exclude them from the count check.

Pick a candidate

Start with EV, but check the Implied source indicator.

If the candidate is implied, be more conservative:

  • check the fair odds detail
  • check the source count
  • compare the offered price against the next best price
  • reduce the stake if the estimate feels thin
  • skip it if the price looks stale or isolated

Place, save, and track

Once you are comfortable with the implied estimate:

  1. Place the bookmaker bet while the price is available.
  2. Save the play with if the displayed candidate still matches what you placed.
  3. Enter the stake you placed.
  4. Add it from Scratchpad to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Treating IMPLIED candidates like derived candidates.
  • Using the same EV threshold for every market.
  • Ignoring a low source count.
  • Taking a large Kelly stake from a weak fair line.
  • Saving after the displayed price has moved.