Lessons

  • How Falling Odds Works

    An introduction to Falling Odds

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Falling Odds moves, offers, fair odds, and actions

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Falling Odds candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Falling Odds uses fair odds, bankroll, and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Falling Odds plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Market-Wide Reference Move

    Use the broad reference pool to find confirmed moves

  • Sharp Bookmaker Move

    Use selected sharp bookmakers to drive the reference

  • Bookmaker-Specific Lag

    Find slow offers at a bookmaker you can use

  • Fair EV and Kelly Confirmation

    Use fair odds as a second check on a falling price

Sharp Bookmaker Move

Use selected sharp bookmakers to drive the reference

Scenario

Say you trust one or more bookmakers as faster price setters for a particular sport.

You want Falling Odds to react when those selected books shorten, then look for a longer offer elsewhere.

Set up the filters

Open Filters and select the relevant Sharp Bookmakers.

Sharp Bookmakers

Choose only the sources whose movement should define this workflow.

Matched Sources

Set this no higher than the number of selected independent sharp datasources.

Moved Sources

Use one when a single selected sharp is intentionally enough. Use two or more when you want agreement across several selected sources.

Min Sharp Drop

Choose a threshold large enough to ignore normal price flicker for the sport and market.

When sharp books are first selected, untouched default source thresholds fall to one. That makes the filter valid for a small list; it does not mean one source is always sufficient evidence.

Pick a candidate

Open the Sharp source detail and verify which selected books matched and moved.

Then check:

  • the sharp move is recent
  • the available offer comes from another datasource
  • the Gap is still present at the live bookmaker
  • the event and market are comparable across books
  • fair odds do not contradict the movement signal

One sharp bookmaker can lead the market. It can also post an outlier or correction. More independent confirmation reduces that risk but may make the signal slower.

Place, save, and track

  1. Open both the sharp reference context and the offer bookmaker.
  2. Confirm the offer is still longer than the sharp Now price.
  3. Place at a stake supported by fair odds and bankroll, not by reputation alone.
  4. Save with and add the placed bet to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Selecting bookmaker aliases that share one datasource and counting them twice.
  • Leaving Matched or Moved above the number of selected sharps.
  • Assuming every sharp move contains useful information.
  • Comparing slightly different markets or lines.
  • Chasing the offer after it has caught up.