Lessons

  • How Falling Odds Works

    An introduction to Falling Odds

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Falling Odds moves, offers, fair odds, and actions

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Falling Odds candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Falling Odds uses fair odds, bankroll, and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Falling Odds plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Market-Wide Reference Move

    Use the broad reference pool to find confirmed moves

  • Sharp Bookmaker Move

    Use selected sharp bookmakers to drive the reference

  • Bookmaker-Specific Lag

    Find slow offers at a bookmaker you can use

  • Fair EV and Kelly Confirmation

    Use fair odds as a second check on a falling price

Market-Wide Reference Move

Use the broad reference pool to find confirmed moves

Scenario

Say you want the wider bookmaker market to confirm a move before you inspect a slow offer.

You do not have one sharp bookmaker in mind. You want agreement across enough independent sources to reduce one-book noise.

Set up the filters

Open Filters and use:

Sharp Bookmakers
Empty

Leave this blank so all eligible bookmakers can contribute to the reference pool.

Movement Window
3h

Start with the default three-hour comparison.

Drop
4pp or higher

Require a meaningful move in implied probability.

Matched and Moved Sources
10

Keep the broad default confirmation unless your markets rarely have that much coverage.

Use league, market, and time filters to stay in markets you can verify and place.

Pick a candidate

Start with Gap and Drop, then inspect the source counts.

A useful broad-market candidate should have:

  • enough matched sources to make the prior/current comparison credible
  • enough individually moved sources to show the change is not isolated
  • a live offer that is still longer than the Now reference
  • fair odds or other context that supports acting

If 10 sources matched but only a small number moved, the median move may be less convincing than the headline Drop suggests.

Place, save, and track

  1. Open the offer bookmaker and verify the exact market and odds.
  2. Check fair EV and Kelly when available.
  3. Place only if the live price still justifies the bet.
  4. Save with when the displayed details match.
  5. Add the play from Scratchpad to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Treating bookmaker aliases as independent sources.
  • Lowering source thresholds until every small move appears.
  • Ignoring a negative or unavailable fair EV.
  • Acting after the offer has already shortened.
  • Using an obscure market that is difficult to verify.