Lessons

  • How Falling Odds Works

    An introduction to Falling Odds

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Falling Odds moves, offers, fair odds, and actions

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Falling Odds candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Falling Odds uses fair odds, bankroll, and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Falling Odds plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Market-Wide Reference Move

    Use the broad reference pool to find confirmed moves

  • Sharp Bookmaker Move

    Use selected sharp bookmakers to drive the reference

  • Bookmaker-Specific Lag

    Find slow offers at a bookmaker you can use

  • Fair EV and Kelly Confirmation

    Use fair odds as a second check on a falling price

Fair EV and Kelly Confirmation

Use fair odds as a second check on a falling price

Scenario

Say a selection has a strong Drop and a useful slow-book Gap, but you do not want to bet from movement alone.

You want fair odds to support the offer and Kelly to keep the stake proportionate.

Set up the filters

Use movement filters strict enough to surface genuine candidates:

  • a meaningful Drop
  • a usable Gap
  • enough matched and moved sources
  • current prices fresh enough to act on

Then open the Bankroll tab.

Bankroll Source
Tracker or Manual

Use current Tracker balances or a separate manual value-betting bankroll.

Kelly Fraction
Fractional

Use a conservative fraction when fair odds are estimates rather than facts.

Stake Rounding

Choose practical stakes that fit the account.

Pick a candidate

Start with the movement evidence, then use the EV card as a separate test.

Prefer candidates where:

  • fair odds are available
  • EV is positive enough to justify the risk and effort
  • fair-odds source support is credible
  • Kelly produces a stake you are comfortable placing
  • the fair odds are derived rather than IMPLIED, when possible

If fair EV is negative, the market move and fair model disagree. Investigate the difference or pass. If fair odds are missing, do not invent a Kelly stake from Drop or Gap.

Place, save, and track

  1. Verify the live offer and reference context.
  2. Choose the actual stake; Kelly is a guide, not a command.
  3. Place while the price is still available.
  4. Save with using the actual stake.
  5. Add the play to Tracker and review results over a meaningful sample.

Common mistakes

  • Treating Gap as EV.
  • Increasing the stake because Drop is large.
  • Giving IMPLIED fair odds the same confidence as derived fair odds.
  • Using stale Tracker balances for Kelly.
  • Judging the strategy from a handful of wins or losses.