Lessons

  • How Falling Odds Works

    An introduction to Falling Odds

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Falling Odds moves, offers, fair odds, and actions

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Falling Odds candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Falling Odds uses fair odds, bankroll, and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Falling Odds plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Market-Wide Reference Move

    Use the broad reference pool to find confirmed moves

  • Sharp Bookmaker Move

    Use selected sharp bookmakers to drive the reference

  • Bookmaker-Specific Lag

    Find slow offers at a bookmaker you can use

  • Fair EV and Kelly Confirmation

    Use fair odds as a second check on a falling price

Bookmaker-Specific Lag

Find slow offers at a bookmaker you can use

Scenario

Say you want to monitor one bookmaker account for prices that may be slow to follow the market.

The account is the place you can bet. It should not also be the only source proving its own price is slow.

Set up the filters

Open Filters.

Bookmakers

Select the target offer bookmaker in the Bookmakers tab.

Sharp Bookmakers
Optional

Leave this empty for broad market confirmation, or select trusted reference books. Do not rely on another alias of the target datasource as independent evidence.

Min Slow-Book Gap

Set a gap large enough to justify opening and checking the target account.

Only Bookmakers With Balance

Enable this when you only want offers from accounts with tracked available balance.

Use normal leagues, markets, prices, and event windows for the account. A huge apparent edge on an odd market is not automatically better account activity.

Pick a candidate

Confirm the row's bookmaker is the intended target, then check the live offer.

Compare Offer, Was, and Now. If the bookmaker has already shortened, the row is stale even if the old Gap looked attractive.

Check fair EV separately. A target-bookmaker lag is useful only when the actual price and risk still make sense.

Place, save, and track

  1. Open the target bookmaker from the row.
  2. Verify the exact odds, market, and line.
  3. Place a normal stake that fits the account and bankroll.
  4. Save with only if the displayed bookmaker and odds match.
  5. Add the play to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Using Sharp Bookmakers when the real intent was to filter the offer bookmaker.
  • Treating a target account as independent reference evidence for itself.
  • Chasing an extreme Gap without checking market limits or availability.
  • Ignoring whether the bet looks sensible for the account.
  • Saving the row after placing at a different price.