Lessons

  • How Positive EV Works

    An introduction to Positive EV

  • Reading the Table

    How to read Positive EV candidates, odds, fair odds, and Kelly

  • Using Filters

    How to filter Positive EV candidates

  • Bankroll and Staking

    How Positive EV uses bankroll and Kelly

  • Saving a Play

    How to save Positive EV plays to Scratchpad

  • Examples

  • Standard Value Bet

    Use Positive EV for a straightforward value bet

  • Implied Fair Odds

    Include Implied alongside Derived candidates

  • Kelly and Bankroll

    Use Positive EV staking controls

  • Bookmaker-Specific Value

    Use Positive EV for one bookmaker or account

  • Small-Edge Mug Bet

    Use Positive EV for normal account activity

Standard Value Bet

Use Positive EV for a straightforward value bet

Scenario

Say you want a normal Positive EV bet with enough edge and enough fair-odds support to act confidently.

You are not trying to lock in a profit. You are trying to capture a price that appears better than the fair line.

Set up the filters

Open filters with Filters and use a conservative setup:

EV Source
Derived

Start with Derived so results only use devigged fair odds from markets with an EV grouping.

Expected Value

Use a minimum EV that is worth your time. Derived defaults to 2% in the tool.

Derived Min Sources

Keep enough source prices in the fair-odds estimate. The default is 3.

Use bookmaker, league, market, and time filters if you only want bets you can place quickly.

Pick a candidate

Start with EV and Kelly.

If the candidate is worth checking, confirm:

  • the offered odds still exist
  • the event, market, and selection are correct
  • the fair odds and source count look credible
  • the Kelly stake is acceptable
  • the bookmaker account is suitable for the bet

Use if you want the bet details panel before acting.

Place, save, and track

Once the live price matches the candidate:

  1. Place the bookmaker bet.
  2. Save the play with if the displayed candidate still matches what you placed.
  3. Enter the stake you placed.
  4. Add it from Scratchpad to Tracker.

Common mistakes

  • Waiting too long and losing the offered price.
  • Treating EV as a guaranteed result.
  • Ignoring the fair-odds source count.
  • Blindly staking the full Kelly suggestion.
  • Saving stale odds after the price has moved.