Lessons

  • Theory
  • Introduction to Value Betting

    An overview of the principles behind value betting

  • Devig Methods

    Methods to remove bookmaker margin from odds

  • Caveats

    A word to the wise on value betting

Finding Value Bets

How to identify potential value bets

Open the Positive EV tool to find offered prices above an estimated fair price.

Choose how to estimate value

The Value filters let you select one or more EV sources:

  • Derived: weighted, devigged prices for the same exact proposition.
  • Line: an estimate from qualifying nearby consensus lines in the same event, where the exact line lacks enough Derived support.
  • Implied: weighted market-average prices for fallback candidates. These retain bookmaker margin.
  • Sharp: the raw prices of your selected reference bookmakers. Identical reference prices are combined into one row. Reference bookmakers are excluded from Sharp offers.

The sources produce different kinds of evidence. Several can be enabled together, with separate EV ranges. Derived, Line, and Implied also have separate source-count requirements. Derived Min Sources controls when Implied fallback is eligible. EV bounds are inclusive; leaving a bound blank removes it, so zero or negative EV is allowed when no minimum excludes it.

Offer-bookmaker filters control where the bet can be placed. They do not narrow the consensus datasource universe. Sharp Bookmakers controls the reference prices for Sharp rows instead.

For detailed controls, see Using Filters.

Read a candidate

Start with EV, then inspect the offered price, fair price and its sources:

  • EV: estimated profit as a percentage of stake. It uses the effective offered odds, including any bookmaker win fee, against the fair price.
  • Source indicator: identifies Derived, Line, Implied or Sharp when several sources are active.
  • Fair: open its detail to inspect supporting prices. Line rows also show the nearby reference lines; Sharp rows identify the reference bookmakers.
  • Sources: the evidence supporting the fair estimate, with source-specific counting rules.
  • Next best: the next available price for comparison.
  • Kelly: suggested stake sizing using the selected bankroll, Kelly fraction and rounding.

A high EV number can reflect a stale offer or weak fair-price evidence. Check the market, selection and live price before acting.

Save and track

After placing, use Save play if the displayed candidate still matches the price you received. Enter the actual stake, then move the Scratchpad entry into Tracker.

The worked examples show the full sequence.