In an earlier lesson, we alluded to the importance of using tools to help with converting bonus bets into cash.
Radar is one such tool in our suite that can significantly streamline this process.
The goal is to place a back bet at the bookmaker using our bonus bet, then place a lay bet at the exchange to cover our position. This way, we can lock in a profit regardless of the outcome.
There are two types of bets you'll place during your matched betting journey:
SR (stake returned) bets: When you place a bet, you'll keep both the stake and profit portion of winning wagers. If you were to place a bet with your own money, it would be an SR bet.
SNR (stake not returned) bets: When you place a bet, you'll keep the profit portion of winning wagers. This excludes your stake. Most bonus bets are SNR bets, as dictated by the bookmaker's terms.
It is possible for bonus bets to be SR (stake returned) bets, but this is far less common.
When converting both SR and SNR bonus bets into cash, the ideal bet propositions are those with lay odds as close to the back odds as possible.
Additionally, with SNR bonus bets, it's far more efficient to back outcomes with higher odds, as the percentage of the bonus bet that is converted into cash increases with higher odds.
This is because the stake proportion of the bet (which is not returned to you) is lower when the odds are higher.
We call the percentage of the bonus bet that is converted into cash the retention rate. The retention rate is higher when backing outcomes with higher odds.
Whilst you could find suitable bet combinations manually, using Radar can save you a significant amount of time and effort.
Converting our TAB bonus bet into cash with Radar
Using Radar to find the best propositions for converting our TAB bonus bet into cash is a straightforward process. Here's how you can do it:
Click on Filters -> Strategy. Under "Mode", switch to "Exchange". We'll cover dutching in the next lesson.
Click on the "Key Bookmakers" filter, and select (you can search by typing) TAB.
TAB bonus bets are SNR. Select "SNR" to sort by.
The page will now be populated by potential back & lay bet combinations to use your TAB bonus bet on.
SR (stake returned): For every $1 you stake in cash, this is how much you'll profit.
Normally this number is negative. -0.05 means for every $1 you stake, you'll lose 5 cents. A positive number here indicates an arbitrage opportunity.
Note: If you're converting SR bonus bets, this is the metric to focus on, even though it's negative. A $100 SR bonus bet used on a bet combination with an SR value of -0.05 would result in a profit of $95. The number is negative because usually it refers to using your own money, not the bookmaker's.
SNR (stake not returned): For every $1 you stake in SNR bonus bets, this is how much you'll profit.
This number is always positive, as you're using a bonus bet to cover your stake. For our TAB bonus bet, this is the column we'll want to focus on.
Since we selected SNR to sort by, the page will show us the most profitable SNR opportunities at the top.
Under lay odds you'll see a dollar ($) amount. This refers to the liquidity available at the stated odds.
As we learnt in a previous lesson, an exchange is a marketplace where you can bet against other users, and the liquidity indicates how much money is available to match your bet with another punter at those odds.
Lay odds of 5 with a liquidity value of $100 means there's $100 worth of bets wanting to back a selection at those odds. In other words, you can place a lay bet with a stake up to $100, and it'll be matched by the exchange at those odds.
How much liquidity will our lay bet need? The minimum liquidity required is equal to the amount you want to lay. But how do we know how much we want to lay?
Integrated bet stats
Throughout our tools, you'll see the integrated bet stats panel, accessible from the same looking button. Depending on which tool you're using, certain parts of the bet stat panel will be prepopulated with relevant data to help you make informed decisions. We'll cover the bet stats panel more extensively in a later course. For now, let's use the calculator to determine our lay stake.
Click the bet stats button for the first bet proposition. This will open the integrated bet stats panel.
By default, the panel opens on the graph view. This graph plots how this particular proposition's odds have changed over time, across all indexed bookmakers.
This doesn't matter for our purposes right now, so let's switch to the calculator view. Select "Calculators" at the top.
Exchange calculator
The default calculator is the exchange calculator, which is the one we're interested in.
Since our TAB bonus bet is a SNR bet, we'll want to ensure the "Bet Type" is set to Stake Not Returned (SNR).
Set the back stake equal to the value of the bonus bet you've received. All the other values should be prepopulated to match the data on the table.
If you scroll down on the calculator you'll see three numbers that it's calculated:
Lay Stake: This is the amount you need to lay on the exchange to cover your back bet. The liquidity available at the lay odds must be sufficient to match this stake.
Liability: This is the amount of money you will need in your Betfair account to place the lay bet.
Profit: This is the amount of money you will make, regardless of the outcome.
By default, the calculator will determine the optimal lay stake for you based on the back stake and the odds provided. Optimal in this context means no matter the outcome, you will achieve the same return.
Since we're using a bonus bet, this means we'll earn the same profit regardless of the outcome.
Overlaying & underlaying
In some cases, you may want to adjust your lay stake to either increase your potential profit (overlaying) or reduce your liability (underlaying).
Overlaying: This involves increasing your lay stake above the optimal amount determined by the calculator. By doing this, you increase your profit if your lay bet wins. However, be aware that this also increases your liability if the lay bet loses.
Underlaying: This is the opposite of overlaying. It involves decreasing your lay stake below the optimal amount. This can help reduce your liability if the lay bet loses, but it also means you'll make less profit if the lay bet wins.
Try sliding the underlay/overlay slider, and watch what happens to the three numbers below.
Reducing your liability
If you don't have enough bankroll to cover the lay bet's liability, you have a few options.
Split your bonus bet (recommended): TAB, and other bookmakers, allow you to split your bonus bet into smaller parts.
This way, you can place multiple smaller lay bets instead of one large bet, reducing your overall liability.
Underlay: If you want to reduce your liability without splitting your bet, you can underlay by placing a smaller lay bet than the optimal amount suggested by the calculator.
This will decrease your potential profit if your lay bet wins (and increase your profit if it doesn't), but it will also lower your liability if it loses.
Choose a different proposition: If the current proposition has too much liability, you can look for a different one with lower lay odds. Note however, this will likely come at the expense of potential profit.
Choosing the right bet
We just chose the first bet proposition for demonstration purposes. This is the one with the highest potential risk free profit, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the one you should take. Here's a list of factors to consider when choosing a bet, besides potential profit:
Required liability: Propositions with higher lay odds will require you to have a larger bankroll in your Betfair account to cover the lay bet's liability. If you're starting with a smaller bankroll, you may want to focus on propositions with lower lay odds.
Event timing: Consider the timing of the event you're betting on. Events that are further in the future will require you to lock up your stake for a longer period of time, which can impact your overall bankroll management.
Market obscurity: If a market is obscure or has low liquidity, it may be harder to place your lay bet at the desired odds if they move. Additionally, betting in obscure markets draws attention from bookmakers, which harms your sustainability prospects. We'll cover this in more detail in a later course. As a rule of thumb, you'll want to stick to more mainstream markets.
Placing your bet
Once you've chosen your bet, it's time to place it.
Clicking on the bookmaker's name (TAB) will take you straight to the event page for that market.
Do so, and make sure the back odds match the odds entered in the calculator.
Clicking on the exchange's name (Betfair) will take you to the corresponding market on the exchange.
Again, ensure the lay odds match those in the calculator (you must be signed in to Betfair for up to date odds).
Whenever you're backing and laying bets, make sure your bet is accepted by the bookmaker first, and then place your lay bet on the exchange.
Select the proposition at TAB, and make sure you choose to use your bonus bet instead of your real money balance. Place the back bet, and make sure it gets accepted.
Place your lay bet on the exchange, ensuring the lay odds and stake match those in the calculator.
Congratulations, you've just placed your first matched bet!
Help! The lay odds changed before I could place my bet. What should I do?
If the lay odds change before you can place your bet, you have a few options:
Submit your bet anyway: There's no harm in submitting a bet at your original odds, even if the current lay odds are above them. They'll be held by the exchange, and matched when (if) the odds you requested are available.
Recalculate your bet: Use the calculator to recalculate your lay bet based on the new odds. If the new profit value is acceptable, you can proceed with the adjusted lay bet.
Ultimately, it's important to ensure that your lay bet is matched at the desired odds to maintain your profit potential. Once you've placed your back bet, you'll be incentivized to find a suitable lay bet to match it, so long as the outcome is still profitable.
Recording your bet
Now that you've placed your bet, let's add it to the Tracker so we can monitor your matched betting performance over time.
In the Radar row corresponding to the bet you just placed, click the save to scratchpad button .
Select "Stake Not Returned", enter the amount of your stake and underlay (if applicable).
Click Save. Click the Scratchpad button in the top right corner of the navigation bar.
You'll see the play you just created, but it hasn't yet been saved to the Tracker. Instead, it's been saved to your Scratchpad. Click the Quick Add button .
PuntPilot should be able to automatically resolve both your back and lay bets once the event has concluded.
This means that any winnings or losses will be reflected in your Tracker automatically, without any intervention on your part.
Now we've learnt how to get against ourselves by lay betting on the exchange. You might be thinking - why can't I just bet on the other outcome(s) at different bookmakers? You can, and this approach is called dutching. We'll cover dutching in the next lesson.